Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM Fut. Continuous Chart) - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - UP TO NEUTRAL

RESUME & VIEW - THE INDEX IS IN STRONG UPTREND WITH STRONG MOMENTUM, BUT IS APPROACHING THE IMPORTANT RESISTANCE ZONE FROM 14000 PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL AND THE ALL TIME  HIGH/TOP RESISTANCE AT 14250. THE FIRST SUPPORT THAT MUST HOLD UP THE INDEX TO BE ABLE TO EXPLORE NEW HIGHS ABOVE THE HYSTORICAL TOP AT 14250 IS 13650 ONE. IF IT FAILS TO SUPPORT THEN WILL BE IN PLAY DEEPER CORRECTION WITH A MINIMUM RETRACEMENT AND TEST OF 13000 PSYCHOLOGICAL SUPPORT.

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor - 14500

Moderate - 14000

Strong - 14250

 

PIVOT POINT - 13600

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 13660 | 13370

Moderate -   13000 | 12735  

Strong - 12400

 

Situation Chart:

DAX Germany - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - UP TO NEUTRAL

RESUME & VIEW - THE INDEX IS WELL MOVING UPWARD AFTER THE BREAKOUT OF THE LONG TERM TRIANGLE PATTERN. IT IS APPROACHING REISTANCE ZONE AREA FROM THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 8000 AND THE HYSTORICAL TOPS AROUND 8150 FROM YEAR 2007. THE INDEX PROBABLY WILL SLOW A BIT HERE FOR A RETRACE WITH SUPPORT AT 7500 LEVEL, BELOW IS THE TRENDLINE FROM THE TRIANGLE PATTERN NOW ACTING AS SUPPORT CURRENTLY NEAR 7350 LEVEL AND THE PSYCHOLOGICAL AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT AT 7000 LEVEL.

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor - 

Moderate - 8000

Strong - 8150

 

PIVOT POINT - 7740

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 7600 | 7500 | 7350

Moderate -   7000

Strong - 

 

Situation Chart:

SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - UP TO NEUTRAL

RESUME & VIEW - IT IS STILL GOING UP AFTER THE BREAKOUT OF THE CHANNEL AND SUCCESSFULLY TESTING IT. HERE IS SOME RESISTANCE FROM THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 30 LEVEL AND THE BOTTOM AT 29 FROM JUL 2006. IF IT MAINTAIN TO GO ABOVE THAT RESISTANCE THEN NEXT TARGET WILL BE THE PSYCHOLOGICAL AND TOP RESISTANCE AT 40 FROM JAN 2007. THERE IS 1ST SUPPORT AT 27 AND MORE IMPORTANT ONE AT 24.

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor - 31.20-32

Moderate - 29-30 | 37

Strong - 

 

PIVOT POINT - 28.20

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 27 | 25

Moderate -  24

Strong - 

 

Situation Chart:

10-Year Treasury Note (ZN Fut. Continuous chart) - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - NEUTRAL TO UP

RESUME & VIEW - 10Y T-NOTE CONTINUE SLIDING AFTER THE FAIL TO BREAKOUT OF 135 RESISTANCE. IT IS STILL MOVING AROUND THE SUPPORT AT 131 LEVEL. NEXT SUPPORT THAT IS STRONG AND IMPORTANT FOR THE UPTREND DEVELOPED IS AT 128. THERE IS RESISTANCE AROUND 133 LEVEL. TO RETURN TO AN UPTREND FROM CURRENT NEUTRALITY THE PRICE MUST RETURN ABOVE THE MENTIONED 133 RESISTANCE.

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor - 132.15 | 133

Moderate - 135 | 136

Strong - 

 

PIVOT POINT - 131.20

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 126

Moderate -  131

Strong - 127

 

Situation Chart:

EuroBund - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - NEUTRAL TO UP

RESUME & VIEW - IT IS CURRENTLY CONSOLIDATING BETWEEN 139 AND 146 LEVELS AFTER THE INABILITY TO EMERGE ABOVE 145 RESISTANCE. IT HAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING ABOVE 50SMA TO BE ABLE TO RETURN TO CLEAR UPTREND ABOVE 145 LEVEL. DEEPENING BELOW 50SMA AND CONFIRMING A BREAKDOWN OF IT WOULD LEAD TO SELLS AND TEST OF THE STRONG SUPPORT AROUND 135 LEVEL.

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor - 144

Moderate - 146

Strong - 147

 

PIVOT POINT - 142.50

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 

Moderate -  139.50 | 138.50 

Strong - 135

 

Situation Chart:

Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index (Shares) - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - NEUTRAL

RESUME & VIEW - THE INDEX IS IN ABSOLUTELY NEUTRAL TERRITORY. AFTER THE TEST OF THE BREAKOUT OF THE TRENDLINE AROUND 30 LEVEL AND THE FALL OF THERE IS FOUND SOME SUPPORT AROUND 27.50. TAKING A LOOK AT THE CHART SHOWS US THAT THE INDEX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NEAR LONG TERM TRENDLINE. EMERGING ABOVE THAT TRENDLINE WILL LEAD TO PURCHASES AND TEST OF 35 STRONG RESISTANCE.

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor - 

Moderate - 29.00 | 30.50 | 31.00 | 32.80

Strong - 

 

PIVOT POINT - 28.30

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 

Moderate -  27.50 | 25.00

Strong - 

 

Situation Chart:

Light Sweet Crude Oil - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - NEUTRAL TO UP

RESUME & VIEW - THE OIL IS IN TRIANGLE FORMATION AS SEEN FROM THE CHART. IT PROBABLY WILL GO UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 100 LEVEL TO FORM THE END OF THE "D" POINT OF THE TRIANGLE FORMING. THE SUPPORT FOR FORMING THE "D" POINT IS 93 LEVEL WHERE 50SMA IS CURRENTLY. INABILITY TO STAY ABOVE 93 SUPPORT LEVEL WILL BRING BACK THE OIL TO ABSOLUTELY NEUTRAL TERRITORY.

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor - 

Moderate - 100 | 107 | 110 

Strong - 115

 

PIVOT POINT - 95

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 93 | 90

Moderate -  84 | 77

Strong - 75

 

Situation Chart:

Copper (Commex continuous chart) - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - NEUTRAL TO UP

RESUME & VIEW - AFTER THE RANGE FORMED IN TRIANGLE FORMATION WE FINALLY SEE A TRY FOR ESCAPING THE PATTERN. FOR THE BREAKOUT TO BE SUCCESSFULL IT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE RESISTANCE AT 400 PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL. ESCAPING THAT RESISTANCE WILL RETURN THE LONG TERM UPTREND BACK. THERE IS SUPPORT AT 350 LEVEL. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE A TEST OF THE BREAKOUT OF THE TRIANGLE AROUND 360 LEVEL.

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor - 375

Moderate - 387

Strong - 400 | 450

 

PIVOT POINT - 365

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 360

Moderate -  350 | 340 | 325

Strong - 

 

Situation Chart:

GOLD - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - NEUTRAL TO UP

RESUME & VIEW - THE GOLD CONTINUE MOVING IN NEUTRAL TERRITORY. WE SEE SOME SLOWING AFTER THE FALL OF THE TRENDLINE PROJECTED TESTED AROUND 1800 STRONG RESISTANCE. THIS SLOWING IS DUE TO THE PREVIOUS TOPS AROUND 1635 LEVEL BEEN RESISTANCE NOW ACTING AS SUPPORT. THE SUPPORT AT 1635 IS LIKELY TO HOLD, IT WOULD LEAD TO BUYING THE GOLD FOR A TEST OF THE STRONG 1800 RESISTANCE AGAIN. BREAKDOWN OF THAT SUPPORT WILL BRING TEST OF THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 1500 LEVEL.

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor - 1700

Moderate - 1755

Strong - 1800 | 1925

 

PIVOT POINT - 1677

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 

Moderate -  1635 | 1500

Strong -  1525

 

Situation Chart:

U.S. Dollar Index - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - NEUTRAL

RESUME & VIEW - THE INDEX IS MOVING IN TIDE RANGE AROUND PSYCHOLOGICAL 80.00 LEVEL. IT IS CURRENTLY STUCK AROUND THE LAST PRICE ACTION BOTTOM AT 78.50 LEVEL. LET US REMIND THAT THE BOTTOM AT 78.50 LEVEL MENTIONED IS THE LAST ONE AND IMPORTANT FOR THE UPMOVE BOUCE FROM 73.00 LEVEL. SO IF A POSSIBLE SUCCESSFULL BREAKOUT BELOW 78.50 BOTTOM, WE'LL SEE TEST OF 73.00-73.50 SUPPORT ZONE. 80.00 PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL REMAIN PIVOT POINT. THE RESISTANCE IS AT 81.50 LEVEL.

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor - 83.00

Moderate - 81.00 | 81.50 | 84.00

Strong - 

 

PIVOT POINT - 80.00

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 79.00

Moderate -  78.50 | 75.00 

Strong -  73.00-73.50

 

Situation Chart:

NZD/USD - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - UP TO NEUTRAL

RESUME & VIEW - THE PAIR IS IN UPTREND. AT THE CURRENT LEVEL OF 0.8500 IT HAVE BEEN MEETING THE STRONG DOUBLE TOP RESISTANCE FROM BOTH AUGUST 2011 AND FEBRUARY 2012 ONES. IN A POSSIBLE SUCCESSFULL BREAKOUT ABOVE THAT RESISTANCE, NEXT ONE TO BE MET IS THE HISTORICAL TOP RESISTANCE AT 0.8800 LEVEL MADE IN AUGUST 2011. THERE IS SUPPORT ZONE AROUNG 0.8000-0.8150 LEVELS CURRENTLY.

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor -

Moderate - 0.9000

Strong - 0.8500 | 0.8800

 

PIVOT POINT - 0.8300

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 0.8300 | 0.8150

Moderate - 0.8050 | 0.7900 | 0.7800

Strong - 

 

Situation Chart:

AUD/USD - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - NEUTRAL TO UP

RESUME & VIEW - THE PAIR CONTINUES MOVING IN VERY TIDE RANGE. IT IS TECHNICALLY "LOCKED" IN RANGE. THE PAIR NEEDS SOME FUNDAMENT TO ESCAPE THE NEUTRALITY. 200 SMA IS STILL SUPPORTING THE PAIR AT CURRENT LEVEL OF 0.9700. MEANS THAT THE UPSIDE MOVES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE SEEN. AS LONG AS THE PAIR IS MOVING INTO THE 0.9400-1.0000 BORDERS RANGE IT WILL REMAIN NEUTRAL.

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor - 

Moderate - 1.0600 | 1.0800

Strong - 1.1100

 

PIVOT POINT - 1.0450

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 1.0350 | 1.0000

Moderate -  1.0150 | 0.9650

Strong - 0.9400

 

Situation Chart:

USD/CAD - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - NEUTRAL TO DOWN

RESUME & VIEW - THE PAIR IS LOCKED IN NEUTRAL TERRITORY. EVEN IN NEUTRAL TERRITORY THE PAIR IS WELL COVERED BY THE 200SMA, WHICH IS ACTING AS RESISTANCE. MEAN THAT THE DOWNSIDE MOVES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE SEEN. THE PARITY(1.0000) LEVEL IS PIVOT POINT. AS LONG AS THE PAIR IS MOVING INTO THE 0.9400-1.0600 BORDERS RANGE IT WILL REMAIN NEUTRAL.

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor - 1.0100

Moderate - 1.0200 | 1.0450

Strong - 1.0650

 

PIVOT POINT - 1.0000

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 0.9800

Moderate - 0.9650

Strong - 0.9400

 

Situation Chart:

USD/CHF - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - NEUTRAL TO DOWN

RESUME & VIEW - THE PAIR IS STILL MOVING SIDEWAYS. THE CURRENT LOCATION AND THE MOVES OF THE PAIR AROUND THE IMPORTANT BOTTOM AROUND 0.9000 LEVEL ARE VERY SIGNIFICANT. LET US REMING THAT THE BOTTOM MENTIONED IS THE LAST ONE FROM THE PRICE ACTION FORMED AFTER THE UPMOVE BOUNCE FROM 0.7000 LEVEL. COMPROMISING THE BOTTOM AROUND 0.9000 LEVEL WILL CHANGE THE TREND STATUS FROM NEUTRAL TO DOWNTREND. THE CHANCE TO COMPROMISE THAT BOTTOM IS RISING. INDICATOR FOR THE STRENGHT OF THE TEST WILL BE THE RESISTANCE FORMED AROUND 0.9500 LEVEL.

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor - 

Moderate - 0.9500 

Strong - 1.0000

 

PIVOT POINT - 0.9200

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 0.8235

Moderate - 0.9000 | 0.8600 

Strong - 

 

Situation Chart:

EUR/USD - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - NEUTRAL

RESUME & VIEW - IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE CORRECTIVE PATTERN FORMED AFTER THE BIG UPTREND CHANGE IN YEAR 2008. REMAINS NEUTRAL. THERE IS TRENDLINE NEAR 1.4200 LEVEL. TO BE ABLE TO TEST THAT TRENDLINE IT MUST STAY STABLE ABOVE 200SMA CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 1.3500 LEVEL, WHICH IS NOT SO FAR AWAY. AFTER THAT WE SEE THE NECKLINE OF THE PROJECTED HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN. BUT LET ME REMIND, THE TREND IS STILL NEUTRAL. FOR TESTING THE NECKLINE AND TRYING TO BREAKOUT OF THERE, IT MUST FIRST SUCCESSFULLY EMERGE ABOVE THE TRENDLINE AROUND 1.4200.

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor - 1.4550

Moderate - 1.4250 | 1.4700

Strong - 1.5000

 

PIVOT POINT - 1.3350

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 1.3500 

Moderate - 1.2650 | 1.3000

Strong - 1.2000

 

Situation Chart:

GBP/USD - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - NEUTRAL

RESUME & VIEW - TRIED TO STAY ABOVE THE 200SMA LOCATED NEAR 1.5800 LEVEL,BUT  1.6300 RESISTED AGAIN. REMAINS NEUTRAL. ONLY SUCCESSFULL BREAKOUT OF TRIANGLE BORDERS AROUND 1.5200 SUPPORT OR 1.6500 RESISTANCE WILL CHANGE THE CURRENT NEUTRALITY TO SOME TREND FORMING. 

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor - 1.6500 | 1.6600

Moderate - 1.6300 | 1.6800

Strong - 1.7000

 

PIVOT POINT - 1.5900

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 1.5450 | 1.5000 | 1.4000

Moderate - 1.5250 | 1.4200

Strong - 1.3500

 

Situation Chart:

USD/JPY - Monthly Technical Analysis - February 2013

Uncategorized, Monthly Intermarket Analysis

TREND - UP TO NEUTRAL

RESUME & VIEW- SUCCESSFULL OVERCOME THE PSYCHOLOGICAL RESISTANCE AT 90.00 AFTER THE BREAKOUT OF THE 200SMA. THE TARGET IS ABSOLUTE PARITY PSYCHOLOGICAL  LEVEL AT 100.00. UNTILL, THERE IS NOT SO MUCH RESISTANCE. SOME TRADERS WILL TAKE PROFITS AROUND 95 RESISTANCE, BUT THE TARGET WILL REMAIN 100.00 PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL AND THE CROWD WILL LOAD MORE BUYS WHEN THE PAIR GOES TO RETRACE FROM 95.00 LEVEL. 101.50 IS STRONG RESISTANCE FOR FEBRUARY, BUT 105 IS ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM EXHAUST, SO LIKELY WILL NOT BE REACHED THIS MONTH.

 

RESISTANCES:

Minor - 93.00

Moderate - 95.00

Strong - 101.50

 

PIVOT POINT - 90.00

 

SUPPORTS:

Minor - 88.00

Moderate - 85.00 | 77.00

Strong - 75.00

 

Situation Chart:

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